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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or just the most shocking surprise.

However this year's field is profoundly different. The group of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions declining and recent underperformers ascending in unison. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against several other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a normal season!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still