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Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."