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Just 48 hours before the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a bold forecast – not just the winner citywide, and precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, devoted over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become something of a well-known figure recently for his thorough analyses into city data and polling.

He published his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win while missing the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. Lange possesses a talent for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the split between the “commie corridor”, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he forecasted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in readership and most voters favored the independent, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

How was your election night?

It was necessary because they were adding approximately 200K votes into the system frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious at the beginning: The candidate was ahead the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but came large groups of votes that came in later and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, it was possible where yesterday went kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which the opponent was going to end up basically doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. However the winner gained half a million votes to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He went out and massively expanded his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

Where did the mayor-elect gain additional support from?

He built the alliance that progressives long aimed for: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the primary. Additionally he boosted his base of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that progressives long aimed for: multiracial, youthful, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a genuine phenomenon, limited to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump previously went for the progressive now. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Impact

A major development of the night was the record turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Turnout was much greater than anticipated. I figured it could go over 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. Existed a decent anti-Mamdani block, energized, but his supporters was equally driven, and that sufficed to win.

You forecasted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Currently it appears he’s likely to surpass 50%. He has just over 50% but remain probably 200,000 votes left to report as of Wednesday morning. Thus I don’t think certain, but I believe probable, and I wish he does because then no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His support completely collapsed.

He lost any district in any borough. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump area. That truly was unexpected. The independent kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many conservatives on Staten Island who had a strong turnout. I think there was a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened prior to the former president tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide unless the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your much mentioned left-wing base – did backing for the candidate overwhelming in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed a little dilution of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and residents supported Cuomo. Thus there was some opposition. However overall, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote there was coverage on whether the candidate was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he succeeded?

Exist neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he did well. However in the affluent districts like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, there are Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in the borough, who were pretty staunchly supportive. Therefore it’s unclear if existed major surprises here, but he did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest figures from the left hail from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I’m sure that we’ll see additional examples – candidates will emerge from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I believe that every city in the US can have their own commie corridor. Urban places are the centers of progressive influence in the nation – since youth reside there, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.